Why The Numbers Game Matters in Social Media

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A couple of days back Seth Godinweighed in against thinking ofsocial media influence as a numbers game, arguing that once you focus on numbers you invite more noise. Here’s why I think we need to be cautious about that argument and measure social media influence more.

In the early 1990s a new form of supply, sales, distribution and delivery chain emerged called the business ecosystem. Think ofMicrosoft and its 75,000 VARs and ISTs or, in the supply chain,Walmart‘s supply ecosystem. The ecosystem at this stage was simple.Microsoft and Walmart owned theirs.

In the mid 2000s the theory of business ecosystems grew a little when Marco Iansiti and Roy Levien described them in terms of keystonecompanies that lead the ecosystem and suggested how keystone companies might behave. So we had some complexity but still not a lot of measurement.

Measuring how they create value might allow us to make them more effective and to help people shape their careers within them. Without the metrics there’s a lot of mystery around this new route to wealth creation.In the 2010s, even though ecosystems are now critical to how businesses scale, my guess is we are further away from understanding them and managing them effectively, and the reason is we don’t measure them enough. We’re letting new phenomena get away from us without understanding them deeply enough to replicate and improve.

Here’s how Seth Godin describes the numbers game in social media influence which I think has parallels, not least because social is embedded in ecosystems:

If we put a number on it, people will try to make the number go up.

Now that everyone is a marketer, many people are looking for a louder megaphone, a chance to talk about their work, their career, their product… and social media looks like the ideal soapbox, a free opportunity to shout to the masses.

But first, we’re told to make that number go up. Increase the number of fans, friends and followers, so your shouts will be heard. The problem of course is that more noise is not better noise.

On the other hand if we put more numbers on how influence works, people can fine-tune their voice. They can select benchmarks for where they want to get to on their journey in social media, and get a sense of progress. And people can anchor themselves in forms of behaviour that might turn into a rewarding career.

Yes there is a tendency for people to see social media as predominantly a numbers game but I think that can be explained, in part, by there being no nuance to the metrics.

For as long as its only about one number – how many – people will be driven to increase that one number. But if the metrics include – how richand how active or how real – people can build in other objectives for their work.

One thing I’ve learned recently as well is that one person’s noise is another person’s signal. We don’t have a good way of distinguishing, at all times. So it comes back to letting as many flowers as possible bloom, but with guidelines. Numbers can help with that.

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